To Predict or Prepare
Yesterday I had the pleasure of going to the Cavs game against the Toronto Raptors. Awesome game for sure. The game was neck and neck all the way to the end and Cavs proved victorious in the end. Lebron had several absolutely awesome dunks. Wow, how fun. I have to say that despite and awesome game, the game itself was not the highlight of my evening.
I had the pleasure of meeting and enjoying the evening with whom I now feel to be one of the nicest people walking around God’s green earth, Timothy McCarthy. Tim described himself as just a boy from Ashtabula, OH but the more I learned about Tim, the more I realize that he is a wise wise man with a huge and special heart for people. This morning I dug around I learned more about his business endeavors which all revolve around helping other people be better. Whether that is through one of his inner-city charities that takes a person basically on the streets and sets them up to learn a skilled trade and over time develops that person to become solid on their feet OR whether it is being part of the consortium of wise business owners that strategize about moving their big businesses forward. Oh, and did I mention that all of his consulting is done for free without expectations of any kind?
Check out the most recent newsletter from time below on a great topic, Predict or Prepare. Perfect for Job Seekers to understand where Tim is coming from on this.
“Predict or Prepare”
“Whether you think you can, or you think you can’t, you’re right.”
That’s the inscription on a paperweight I like to gift at graduations.
That thought occurred to me while working with our incubator businesses in a workshop last week. The work we do is a pilot on a street in my home town of Ashtabula, Ohio. The town has been devastated – long before the recession – by industrial flight.
But what we do have is Lake Erie and many other physical gifts which bring lots of visitors in the summertime.
A year ago, when our work began on Bridge Street, I asked our retailers what they do during the winter months. They said, “We simply die down here – there’s no one on the street when the snow flies”.
Their prediction was certainly correct – and obvious – and so I suggested that instead of just predicting, let’s start preparing for the winter of 2010.
Fast forward to last Monday when I asked each business in attendance to tell the group what they were doing to survive the next 90 days.
A couple of the gift shops said, “We’re taking our work to shows.”
Another gift shop said, “We’ve established a website to sell our handmade work”.
A restaurant said, “We’ve developed our catering leads.”
The coffee shop said, “We’re selling our wholesale beans (they bought a roaster) to the restaurant and office trade this winter.”
See, the way I view things, anyone can predict the obvious. Fewer prepare, especially if the prediction is negative.
In 1988, when I was out of work and considering opening a consulting firm, there was no shortage of friends who could tell me that 9 of 10 new businesses – particularly consulting businesses – fail. Like the paperweight says, they thought I couldn’t.
But I decided to prepare, pretending that I could.
So I prepared for the worst. That is, Alice and I knew exactly what we’d do if we failed. But of course we also prepared, and worked our bums off for the less likely outcome of success.
We built a database of every person who we knew who might help connect us to buyers.
We created a unique positioning for the consultancy that would attract those buyers.
We priced our service based on deliverables (value), particularly versus the other consultants.
Then we started sending our message in a friendly little newsletter called Marketalk every month to every person we knew. And every day I forced myself to make 6 phone calls and send 6 hand written notes to new prospects.
It took 19 years but the prognosticators, while right about the market, were wrong about us.
The theme prepare vs. predict is perfect for people looking for a job right now, too. That is, I say to them “Yes, the market is horrible, but you only need one job so let’s get to work at preparing!”
As an old boss told me once, “When the plane’s going down anyway, why not grab the joy stick and push as hard as you can against it?”
Here’s the most amazing story of preparation over prediction I’ve ever experienced. This person, Jan McCoy McCarthy is my inspiration in life and business.
In 1985, Jan and my brother learned she had Sarcoma, a rare and terminal form of cancer. At best, her doctor said, she might live 5 years but most cases terminated in 2 years.
After the shock of his prediction subsided, Jan began to prepare.
She set up her home with her bed in their living room at the center of the family action.
At the time, she had a college girl, a couple of high schoolers and an 8 year old son. I remember her saying “I doubt that I’ll be around that long but I’d sure like to get Danny (the 8 year old) through high school so I’m going to prepare as if I can”.
And for the next eleven years, she not only mothered her baby boy brilliantly but she also continued to pursue many of her other loves, including selling real estate through a partner, putting on family dinners, parties, weekly meetings and church services at her house.
Most inspirationally, she counseled and uplifted people like me who came to visit and take care of poor Jan. Alice and I often remarked when we left Jan’s that we felt stronger and more optimistic about life. She had that kind of effect on people.
And ultimately, she witnessed each of her kids graduate from college. And she saw her youngest son, Danny, graduate from Cleveland St. Ignatius High School in 1995.
She left this world from an empty nest, as she had prayed and hoped and prepared for doing.
And 25 years later she remains the penultimate model for me of why I should prepare rather than predict. Anyone can predict and yet few prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
When we gathered for Jan’s homecoming in late May, 1996, I don’t remember a single person talking about Jan’s death.
We only spoke of her living……and preparing…..for the worst, and for the best.
Peace,
Tim McCarthy
Comments
How wonderful to run across this blog. I have had the good fortune to work for Tim McCarthy. His generosity and good heart seem to be unlimited and his achievements amazing. You are right, Tim McCarthy, and his wife Alice, are the nicest people you could meet. I am a better person for just knowing them.
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