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To Predict or Prepare
Yesterday I had the pleasure of going to the Cavs game against the Toronto Raptors. Awesome game for sure. The game was neck and neck all the way to the end and Cavs proved victorious in the end. Lebron had several absolutely awesome dunks. Wow, how fun. I have to say that despite and awesome game, the game itself was not the highlight of my evening.
I had the pleasure of meeting and enjoying the evening with whom I now feel to be one of the nicest people walking around God’s green earth, Timothy McCarthy. Tim described himself as just a boy from Ashtabula, OH but the more I learned about Tim, the more I realize that he is a wise wise man with a huge and special heart for people. This morning I dug around I learned more about his business endeavors which all revolve around helping other people be better. Whether that is through one of his inner-city charities that takes a person basically on the streets and sets them up to learn a skilled trade and over time develops that person to become solid on their feet OR whether it is being part of the consortium of wise business owners that strategize about moving their big businesses forward. Oh, and did I mention that all of his consulting is done for free without expectations of any kind?
Check out the most recent newsletter from time below on a great topic, Predict or Prepare. Perfect for Job Seekers to understand where Tim is coming from on this.
“Predict or Prepare”
“Whether you think you can, or you think you can’t, you’re right.”
That’s the inscription on a paperweight I like to gift at graduations.
That thought occurred to me while working with our incubator businesses in a workshop last week. The work we do is a pilot on a street in my home town of Ashtabula, Ohio. The town has been devastated – long before the recession – by industrial flight.
But what we do have is Lake Erie and many other physical gifts which bring lots of visitors in the summertime.
A year ago, when our work began on Bridge Street, I asked our retailers what they do during the winter months. They said, “We simply die down here – there’s no one on the street when the snow flies”.
Their prediction was certainly correct – and obvious – and so I suggested that instead of just predicting, let’s start preparing for the winter of 2010.
Fast forward to last Monday when I asked each business in attendance to tell the group what they were doing to survive the next 90 days.
A couple of the gift shops said, “We’re taking our work to shows.”
Another gift shop said, “We’ve established a website to sell our handmade work”.
A restaurant said, “We’ve developed our catering leads.”
The coffee shop said, “We’re selling our wholesale beans (they bought a roaster) to the restaurant and office trade this winter.”
See, the way I view things, anyone can predict the obvious. Fewer prepare, especially if the prediction is negative.
In 1988, when I was out of work and considering opening a consulting firm, there was no shortage of friends who could tell me that 9 of 10 new businesses – particularly consulting businesses – fail. Like the paperweight says, they thought I couldn’t.
But I decided to prepare, pretending that I could.
So I prepared for the worst. That is, Alice and I knew exactly what we’d do if we failed. But of course we also prepared, and worked our bums off for the less likely outcome of success.
We built a database of every person who we knew who might help connect us to buyers.
We created a unique positioning for the consultancy that would attract those buyers.
We priced our service based on deliverables (value), particularly versus the other consultants.
Then we started sending our message in a friendly little newsletter called Marketalk every month to every person we knew. And every day I forced myself to make 6 phone calls and send 6 hand written notes to new prospects.
It took 19 years but the prognosticators, while right about the market, were wrong about us.
The theme prepare vs. predict is perfect for people looking for a job right now, too. That is, I say to them “Yes, the market is horrible, but you only need one job so let’s get to work at preparing!”
As an old boss told me once, “When the plane’s going down anyway, why not grab the joy stick and push as hard as you can against it?”
Here’s the most amazing story of preparation over prediction I’ve ever experienced. This person, Jan McCoy McCarthy is my inspiration in life and business.
In 1985, Jan and my brother learned she had Sarcoma, a rare and terminal form of cancer. At best, her doctor said, she might live 5 years but most cases terminated in 2 years.
After the shock of his prediction subsided, Jan began to prepare.
She set up her home with her bed in their living room at the center of the family action.
At the time, she had a college girl, a couple of high schoolers and an 8 year old son. I remember her saying “I doubt that I’ll be around that long but I’d sure like to get Danny (the 8 year old) through high school so I’m going to prepare as if I can”.
And for the next eleven years, she not only mothered her baby boy brilliantly but she also continued to pursue many of her other loves, including selling real estate through a partner, putting on family dinners, parties, weekly meetings and church services at her house.
Most inspirationally, she counseled and uplifted people like me who came to visit and take care of poor Jan. Alice and I often remarked when we left Jan’s that we felt stronger and more optimistic about life. She had that kind of effect on people.
And ultimately, she witnessed each of her kids graduate from college. And she saw her youngest son, Danny, graduate from Cleveland St. Ignatius High School in 1995.
She left this world from an empty nest, as she had prayed and hoped and prepared for doing.
And 25 years later she remains the penultimate model for me of why I should prepare rather than predict. Anyone can predict and yet few prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
When we gathered for Jan’s homecoming in late May, 1996, I don’t remember a single person talking about Jan’s death.
We only spoke of her living……and preparing…..for the worst, and for the best.
Peace,
Tim McCarthy
Uptick in Hiring…Marketing Jobs Hiring?
I am happy to report that things are picking up. I tend to be weary of many reports and optimistic white papers.
Recently released Careerbuilder.com survey suggested recruiting activity for positions in middle management are increasing. The survey’s findings indicate that 20% of employers plan to add full-time employees in 2010, up from 14% in 2009. Of the respondents, 61% don’t plan to change staff levels and just 9% expect to trim their work forces, down from 16% last year.
Industries where hiring is expected to increase the most in 2010, according to CareerBuilder, are Information Technology, Manufacturing, Financial Services, Professional and Business Services and Sales. Thankfully Digital Marketing Agencies fall into this category. One-third of respondents said they plan to add technology staff and 28% indicated they intent do beef up hiring in customer service. Other job functions where employers expect to add staff include sales, research and development, finance and marketing.
In October, a consulting firm named Watson Wyatt surveyed 201 US Companies, 96% of whom said they’d extended job offers to candidates in the prior three months; 93% said they planned to make additional offers over the next three months. Further, 49% said they planned to reverse hiring freezes by April 2010.
So, to recap…things are looking up.
The Recession’s Footprint – Must See
I received an email from a friend that pointed me to the video below. Do yourself a favor and watch the rate of unemployment in the United States since January 2007. You will be amazed at the impact across the States. If you can’t see the specific detail just know that the color black on the map represents a 10% unemployment rate or higher
I know the video is too big for the blog…I did that on purpose in hopes you can view it better.
I credit the source of this video to Latoya Egwuekwe titled, The Decline, The Geography of a Recession sourced directly from the US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
There are more than 31 million unemployed Americans (according to the USDLB), that is including those who are involuntarily working part time or who actually want a job but have given up trying to find one. We are all in this together. Someone who says that they choose not to participate in the recession have to see this video. They may re-think their comment.
What is your opinion after viewing this video?
End of Year Cheer
Merry Christmas
and a Prosperous New Year!
In a day and age where we need to be cautious and politically correct I say Happy Holidays. From a personal stand point, I thank God that we live in a country where I have religious freedom to worship as I wish…so Merry Christmas! Regardless of your spiritual interpretations, we wish you a Prosperous 2010.
The holidays are a great time to spend with family, friends and attempt to relax. There is this invisible reset button that I am sure many of us are ready to push. Thank you for your support this past year to this blog and the Interview Gurus. We have been able to help literally thousands of individuals in their job search from how to find additional jobs to interview for to developing proper job winning interview skills to actually closing the offer. It has been a great learning experience to us all. We have some amazing things planned for the upcoming year and can’t wait to share them with you. First course of business in the first quarter will be the much anticipated release of The 10 Key Interviewing T.E.C.H.N.I.Q.U.E.S. Thanks in advance for your efforts on getting this book into the hands of our fellow friends and contacts that may be struggling finding employment.
Truly, thank you again and we truly wish you a successful and killer 2010. Go Make It Happen!
Your Opinion Needed: Choose My Book’s Cover
I need your help…more importantly, your opinion
Many of you have heard about the release of my upcoming book, “The 10 Key Interviewing TECHNIQUES“ It has been in the development now for 2 1/2 years and it is now only just a few short weeks away from hitting the bookshelves. If you haven’t heard yet, Amazon.com the book selling giant will be publishing it. I need your help in determining the book cover you feel speaks to you the most and should be the official cover for the book. Now these are rough drafts and will change slightly (i.e.font, color, positioning etc) Simply leave me a comment below. Thank you, I really appreciate your thoughts.
COVER CHOICE #1 COVER CHOICE #2
Thanks for leaving a comment with your thoughts!
